My motivation and expectations
I work as an analyst at the Foresight Centre in a research institute affiliated with a Japanese trade and investment company. My role involves studying the latest methodologies in strategic foresight while also designing and facilitating workshops for business units within the company.
My knowledge of scenario planning was largely self-taught, acquired through reading various publications and conducting workshops based on my own interpretations. However, I had never had the opportunity to study the subject in a structured way. This led me to attend the Oxford Scenarios Programme in October 2023.
A transformative learning experience
By participating as a learner, I was able to observe the outstanding facilitation techniques of both the instructors and fellow participants. Beyond the challenge of engaging in discussions in English as a second language, I often felt a deeper sense of cultural dissonance - moments where I noticed differences in perception due to cultural backgrounds. At times, this made me hesitant to express my views. However, my cohort and the facilitators actively encouraged participation, recognizing that diverse perspectives enrich the conversation.
Outside of the classroom, the early morning guided walk around Egrove, the evening walking tour of Oxford, and the exquisite dinner at Balliol College were all exceptional experiences that added to the richness of the programme.
Initially, I expected a practical, how-to style course. However, the programme turned out to be far more fundamental, academic, and profound than I had anticipated. It was not just about techniques; rather, it continuously challenged participants to ask, “why?”, “how?”, and “for what purpose?”. The faculty were not only highly knowledgeable but also warm and balanced facilitators, creating an environment that encouraged deep reflection. Of course, at the time, a part of me wished I had learned more concrete how-to techniques. However, I have come to understand that once the fundamental principles are deeply grasped, the methodologies will naturally follow.
In addition, I thought that one week would be too short, and I might not gain enough from the experience. However, by the end of the programme, I found myself completely exhausted - in a good way - having absorbed a tremendous amount of learning.
A key lesson: The importance of customization in scenario planning
One of the most impactful lessons I learned was the importance of customization in scenario planning - that scenarios should be tailor-made rather than off-the-shelf templates. A scenario that lacks organizational relevance will fail to resonate with stakeholders, making it difficult for them to engage meaningfully or see its practical implications. Over the following months, I repeatedly revisited what I had learned, applying the insights in my company’s workshops and eventually summarizing my findings in a report. 2411_p_fujii_e.pdf
Returning to Oxford: The 20th anniversary conference
In October 2024, I had the unexpected fortune of returning to Oxford for the Oxford Scenarios Programme 20th Anniversary Conference, exactly one year after attending the programme. This event provided a unique opportunity to reconnect with cohort peers as well as alumni from different years.
During the conference, I was once again struck by how scenario planning, as a shared methodology, creates a common language that transcends age, profession, nationality, and cultural differences. Conversations unfolded effortlessly, driven by a collective curiosity about the future and a shared commitment to exploring uncertainties. It was a powerful reminder of how this approach connects people across disciplines and geographies, fostering meaningful discussions and collaboration.
The role of scenario planning in Japan and the broader society
Scenario planning and strategic foresight encompass a broad range of topics, from science and technology to economics and societal issues. However, in Japan, there tends to be a disproportionate emphasis on technology-driven or quantitative simulation-based approaches. While interest in foresight and scenario planning has been growing - almost like a trend - it remains largely an imported concept, whereas in other countries, it is more naturally embedded in decision-making processes. Meanwhile, Japan’s deeply rooted hierarchical and precedent-based culture, combined with an aging society, has contributed to a growing sense of societal stagnation and loss of dynamism. I believe that strategic foresight and scenario planning offer a way to break through these limitations.
Beyond just benefiting businesses or policymakers, scenario planning can serve as a tool for addressing broader societal challenges. It has the potential to drive transformation not only at the organizational level but also across society as a whole - while simultaneously influencing individuals on a more personal level.
Scenario planning may not always lead to a shared consensus, but it provides an invaluable shared language that helps people understand each other’s perspectives. As a tool for fostering meaningful discussions and collective learning, it is incredibly powerful. And for those who want to master it, the Oxford Scenarios Programme is undoubtedly one of the best in the world.
Find out more about the Oxford Scenarios Programme.
