Climate change
At Saïd Business School, Professor Rafael Ramirez works on a interesting idea called scenario planning. This may sound complex, but it’s really about looking at all the ways the future might unfold and helping us make the best choices now to create a better world. In an interview with the Green Impact team, Rafael shared insights into how scenario planning can help us tackle big issues, like climate change and sustainability. In this article, we’ll explore how his ideas can inspire young climate innovators to think creatively about protecting our planet.
What is scenario planning?
Rafael explains that scenario planning is like drawing different paths into the future. It’s about imagining how the world might look in 10, 20, or even 50 years and planning for different possibilities. Rather than assuming we know exactly what will happen, scenario planning teaches us to consider many different futures. As Rafael puts it, ‘a trend is a trend until it bends,’ highlighting the importance of preparing for how current trends might shift. For example, we could imagine a future where we use only renewable energy, or a future where technology plays a huge role in climate solutions.
Why it matters for sustainability
Scenario planning is especially useful for tackling complex problems like climate change. Climate change affects many things at once – from weather and food supply to animal habitats and city planning. This is where scenario planning can help. Rafael highlights how scenario planning can help ensure we are working on the ‘right problem’, rather than wasting energy on less impactful efforts. By creating different ‘scenarios’ of what could happen, Rafael says we can better understand the big picture and make more effective choices to protect our planet.
Learning from businesses and communities
In his work, Rafael has guided people from all backgrounds to think about the future, from farmers and local communities to big businesses. For instance, he recently worked with a group in the Cotswolds to look at the future of sustainable agriculture across 147 farms. When he works with people figuring out multiple issues, Rafael tries to make sure they are focusing their time and energy on priority challenges.
By looking at many scenarios, people can focus on solving the issues that matter most to them and their communities. Whether it’s a group of farmers wondering how to make food production greener, or a company deciding how to reduce waste, scenario planning helps people make choices that fit with a sustainable future.
Re-thinking priorities for a sustainable future
Rafael believes that people need to think beyond what’s happening today. He suggests that instead of focusing on the ‘trends’ we see now, we should prepare for how those trends might change. For example, if businesses only look at short-term goals like profit, they may not be prepared for the serious climate challenges that could affect them in the long term.
He also encourages businesses to view sustainability as part of their main strategy, not as something separate. In fact, he believes that sustainability departments should be fully connected with a company’s strategic planning so they are included when decisions need to be made. This way, decisions about sustainability are part of every business decision, making it more likely that companies will make choices that benefit the environment.
In scenario planning, we think of trends as leftovers of yesterday's future, and some of the trends might continue. And our job is to imagine how the trends might bend.
How young people can think like scenario planners
Rafael’s work offers valuable advice for young climate innovators. When thinking about the future, it’s helpful to look at problems from different angles and imagine many possible outcomes. For example, if you’re interested in wildlife conservation, think about what might happen to local animals if there are more floods or droughts in the future. What steps could you take today to help protect those animals?
Scenario planning is about preparing for the unexpected. It helps us consider how small changes now can have a big impact later. By thinking creatively about possible futures, young people can make decisions that help protect the world for themselves and future generations.
Looking ahead
Rafael’s approach to scenario planning teaches us the importance of flexible thinking. Instead of assuming the future will be the same as today, he encourages us to imagine a range of possibilities. This way, we’re better prepared to face new challenges – like climate change – and to create solutions that lead to a healthier planet.
By thinking ahead, we can be ready to shape the future – instead of letting it shape us. Through scenario planning, we can all play a part in building a more sustainable world.
Listen to the full episode
Next steps
For an example of how scenario planning can inform our future choices read this piece by Rafael on the four scenarios for plausible futures for the space sector.
