Rafael Ramirez is Director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme and Fellow in Strategy at the Saїd Business School and Green Templeton College, Oxford University. He is one of the world’s leading experts on scenario planning and a founder of theories on the aesthetics of business, work and organisation.

Rafael Ramirez is a world leader in the research and teaching of scenario planning.  He was Visiting Professor of Scenarios and Corporate Strategy at Shell International from 2000 to 2003, and from 2008 to 2010 was Chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Strategic Foresight. As Director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme he leads one of the most highly respected programmes on the subject in the world.

The programme was established in 2004 and has so far taught over 250 participants from all continents and walks of life, including future and present leaders of government, academia, civil society, and business. The programme is designed to prepare participants to make sense of dynamic and unpredictable environments. It encourages them to engage stakeholders such as partners, clients, suppliers and regulators in more effective strategic conversations and to link scenario work to other processes in their organisations. 

Ramirez is known as a founding father of theories on the aesthetics (attractiveness or repulsion) of business, work and organisation. Being one of the first in the world to publish on this topic and the first to write a thesis on aesthetics at a major American business school, his work has contributed to changes in the way business is appreciated and defined.  Ramirez has now written a large number of published papers, books and chapters on this topic, which challenge different aspects of how business is experienced, from the way conference rooms are set up to business language and corporate architecture.

A proven innovator, Rafael co-authored the first major journal articles attacking the ‘value chain’ view of value production (with R. Normann), published in the Harvard Business Review in 1993. This pioneering research provided an alternative way of conceptualising value creation and redefined services as a way of creating value and not as a different sector of the economy. This he further developed in a paper in the Strategic Management Review (1999) on value co-production.

As a consultant and management educator, Ramirez has worked in over 25 countries, with many corporations, governmental and inter-governmental organisations, trade union federations, NGO's and professional associations. These include; Air Liquide, Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris, AT&T, Axa, BMW, The Canadian Labour Congress, the European Patent Office, the European Roundtable of Industrialists, Eurotunnel, HP, The NYC Department of Juvenile Justice, Nissan Europe, O2, The Royal College of General Practitioners, Standard Chartered Bank, Statoil, Suez International, Trenitalia, UNDP/Government of Panama, Wärtsilä, and the World Economic Forum.

Ramirez holds a PhD from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and Master’s degrees from Oxford and from the Environmental Studies Faculty at York University in Toronto. He was Tenured Professor of Management in HEC-Paris until 2009. He also has held positions in the Wharton School, the Centre de Sociologie des Organisations - CNRS in Paris; and SMG and NormannPartners in Stockholm.

In addition to his position at the Saїd Business School, Ramirez is also Senior Research Fellow Futures at the Oxford Martin School and Associate Fellow at the Smith School for Entrepreneurship and the Environment. He co-hosts the Oxford Futures Forum (www.oxfordfuturesforum.org.uk) which has so far convened three times to explore different theoretical frameworks with which to explore scenario planning.

Ramirez speaks English, Spanish and French fluently.

Areas of expertise include:

•  Scenario planning and futures
•  Business and service innovation and design
•  The aesthetic of business, work and organisation

Rafael Ramirez’s main research interests include scenario planning and futures, business innovation, futures and aesthetics. Under these main research arms his expertise covers; scenario planning, business service design, value co-production, organisational aesthetics, beauty and organisational architecture, futures and business innovation.

Scenario Planning and Futures
‘Work in progress’ here is multifaceted. One ongoing project explores how relating scenario planning with early warning systems can provide companies with difficult-to-copy co-specialisation dynamic capabilities to help focus top management attention. The research is based on two longitudinal case studies of Nokia and Statoil.

Another paper under development explores the objectivity and subjectivity aspects of the environmental turbulence scenarios help to address. A third paper that Ramirez is co-authoring with a colleague delves into methodological conundrums. A fourth one, co-authored with a gifted doctoral student, relates scenario planning with the building of social capital.

Recent publications

2008: Ramirez, R., Selsky, J. & van der Heijden, K (eds): Business Planning in Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios. London: Earthscan.

2010: second edition, paperback (with a preface by Vince Cable): Ramirez, R., Selsky, J. & van der Heijden, K (eds): Business Planning in Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios. London: Earthscan.

A. Wilkinson & R. Ramirez: “Canaries in the Mind: Exploring how the financial crisis impacts 21st century futuremindfulness” Journal of Futures Studies, March 2010, 14(3): 45 – 60

Ramirez, R and Ravetz, J: “Feral Futures: Zen and Aesthetics”. Futures, January 2011 43 (4) pp 478-487

Ramírez, R., Österman, R. and Grönquist, D., “Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, May 2013 80(4), pp. (825-838)

Business and Service Innovation and Design 
The majority of corporate R&D facilities separate their MBA qualified business strategists from their scientists and technologists. While both groups are often working towards the goal of innovation, it is common for these two groups to have little, if any, interaction. Rafael’s co-authored research paper outlined the steps Shell managers took to counter this in their attempt to keep innovative after establishing the GameChanger system. The paper outlines how Shell set up an ‘innovation coalition’ by reorganising its portfolio of 85 projects into half-a-dozen ‘domains’.  Other papers consider how service innovation involves customers, and how capabilities can be categorised and sold.

Recent publications

Selsky, J. W., Ramırez, R. and Baburoglu, O.N., “Collaborative Capability Design: Redundancy of Potentialities”, Systemic Practice and Action Research, November 2012

Ramirez, R,  Roodhart, L. & Manders, W: “How Shell Domains Link Innovation and Strategy,” Long Range Planning, August 2011

Ramirez, R and Mannervik, U; “Customer Value Co-Creation And Co-Innovation” in Involving Customers in New Service Development, E. Gummerson, (ed). 2006,  Imperial College Press

Ramirez, R and Mannervik, U; “Designing Value Creating Systems” in Kimbell, L & Seidel, V: Designing for Services - Multidisciplinary Perspectives: Proceedings from the Exploratory Project on Designing for Services in Science and Technology-based Enterprises, Saïd Business School, 2008, University of Oxford.

Ramirez, R and  Blois, K: "Capabilities as marketable assets: A proposal for functional categorization," Industrial Marketing Management, 2006 Volume 35, Issue 8, November, Pages 1027-1031

The Aesthetic of Business, Work and Organisation
A chapter of Rafael’s latest book, co-edited with two colleagues, Business Planning for Turbulent Times (London: Earthscan, 2010), examines how aesthetics can give clarity to scenario planning. Ongoing work in organisational aesthetics considers its roles in cooperation, leadership, and how experience shapes it.

Recent publications:

Ramirez, R., and Eidinow, E. “The Eye Of The Soul”: Phronesis And The Aesthetics Of Organizing, Organizational Aesthetics 1(1): 26-43

“Scenarios providing clarity to address turbulence” in Business Planning in Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios. Ramirez, R., Selsky, J. & van der Heijden, K (eds 2008, 2010), Earthscan, London

R. Ramirez and N. Arvidsson:  “The Aesthetics of Business Innovation: an exploratory distinction of two archetypes” - Innovation: management, policy, and practice, 7.4 (October) 2005

 “The Aesthetics of Cooperation,” European Management Review Vol 2, Issue 1 2005. pp 28-35

“L’ esthétique du management”. Hommes et Commerce, Paris Décembre-Janvier 2005, pp 60-61

Rafael Ramirez is Director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme and also teaches on the Consulting and Coaching for Change programme for executives. He is passionate about using theory and scholarship to improve the quality of practice among senior managers. Ramirez’s teaching style emphasises critical reflection, use of theory, and practical application. He encourages programme participants to test out the tools, methodological criteria and conceptual principles in the safety of an Oxford classroom. With his guidance students practice, learn from mistakes, and apply their newfound knowledge and skills long after they leave the programme. Ramirez encourages students to keep in touch after graduating and is happy to provide post-programme support. 

In addition to executive education programmes, Rafael has co-hosted three Oxford Futures Forum events in 2005, 2008, and 2011. He and other faculty members –notably Angela Wilkinson - have also established a world-leading futures library at Egrove Park.

Rafael Ramirez teaches:

• The Oxford Scenarios Programme
• Consulting and Coaching for Change

The Oxford Scenarios Programme
This intensive four and a half day programme underpins the principles of scenario thinking to enhance the quality of scenario planning practices. The principles of engaging with the future are articulated through both practical methods, techniques, tools and theory, to enhance understanding of the practical.

Consulting and Coaching for Change
Theoretically informed and practically grounded, this programme equips senior executives to deal with change in organisations and the challenge it poses for individuals. The approach is multidisciplinary, linking the social sciences and management theory to practical situations. It also draws upon relevant concepts from psychology, psychoanalysis, anthropology, sociology, philosophy and more.
Consulting and Coaching for Change is run jointly with the HEC School of Management, Paris. The programme is built around six four-day modules alternating between Oxford and Paris.

As a consultant and management educator, Rafael Ramirez has worked in more than 25 countries with range of organisations, including; dozens of corporations, governmental and inter-governmental organisations, trade union federations, NGOs, and professional associations.  He has collaborated with governmental planning departments in many settings including Singapore, South Africa, the Caribbean and the United Arab Emirates. As Director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme he has taught and advised current and future leaders in government and business. As Vice-Chairman of the World Economic Forum Global Council on Strategic Foresight, Rafael has worked with senior heads of the world’s leading companies, consultancies, and governments in dialogues on futures. 

Rafael has designed, prepared, and run board strategy away days, advised and coached senior executives, provided consultation to innovation and strategy directors and CEOs, and been invited as keynote speaker to numerous conferences, such as the UK Society of Chief Librarian’s annual seminar and the International Society for Systems Sciences. He is a Member of the Editorial Boards of Prospective and Stratégie, and of Organizational Aesthetics.

Interventions on futures include:

State and government futures

•  Futures of energy, Government of St. Lucia (financed by CIDA)
•  Futures of patenting with the European Patent Office, an inter-governmental agency with HQ in Munich.
•  Futures of Italy (financed privately)
•  Future of food in Mexico (public financing)
•  Futures of water pollution in the Great Lakes (bi-lateral inter-governmental body)
•  Futures of households and families (Middle East government ministry)
•  Future relationships between a regional development bank and its region governments

Business futures 

•  Futures of smart metering (major equipment maker)
•  Futures of smart grids in the USA (international producer)
•  Futures of luxury cars in Europe (Japanese automobile company)
•  Futures of paper (European multinational)
•  Futures of small boat engines (board of a public company)
•  Futures of offshore gambling (private company)
•  Futures of global shipping (international supplier to the industry)
•  Skills required in the future in telecommunications (State-owned utility)

Scientific organisations and NGO futures

•  Futures for care of the handicapped in Ontario (small NGO)
•  Futures of continuing education (Canadian University)
•  Futures of an Oxford College
•  Futures of the labourer-teacher pedagogy (Canadian educational institution)
•  Possible futures of the General Practitioner (UK Royal College)
•  Futures for an NGO in the arts and offenders field

Methodology advice to others conducting scenario work

•  Futures of North American power generation (large international utility)
•  Futures of metals and mining (private foundation)
•  Futures of regional furniture manufacturing (regional government institute)
•  Futures of dementia and Alzheimer’s (with a private foundation)
•  University institute studying migration futures.
•  President, Executive, Senate and Board of a Canadian University conducting scenarios on the future contexts of their institution.