Bent Flyvbjerg

Overview
Research
Publications
Personal page

Courses taught

MSc in Major Programme Management

Expertise

Bent Flyvbjerg's research covers cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in major programmes, theories of success and failure, complexity and innovation, optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation, cost and demand forecasting in high-risk environments, risk assessment and management, and governance of major programmes. He is author and co-author of key references in the field of major programme management, including the books Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition and Decision-Making on Mega-Projects.

Flyvbjerg furthermore does research on the philosophy of social science, where he has pioneered a research methodology called “phronetic social science," described in his books Making Social Science Matter, Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis and Rationality and Power. His books and articles have been translated into 19 languages and his research covered by Science, The Economist, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, The New York Times, the BBC, Charlie Rose, and many other media.

Overview

Bent Flyvbjerg is the first BT Professor and Chair of Major Programme Management at Oxford University. He is founding Director of Oxford’s BT Centre for Major Programme Management. He is a leading international expert within the field of major programme management and planning.

Flyvbjerg has consulted with both government and business – including several Fortune 500 companies and major banks. He has also worked for regulators, national audit offices, the EU Commission, and the United Nations. He has been an adviser to the UK, Dutch, and Danish governments in formulating national policies for infrastructure, environment, transportation, and science.

Flyvbjerg has received numerous honors and awards, including two Visiting Fulbright Scholarships to the USA, where he did research at the University of California at Los Angeles and Berkeley and at Harvard University. He has been a Visiting Fellow with the European University Institute in Florence. In 2002, Queen Margrethe II of Denmark conferred upon Bent Flyvbjerg the Knighthood of the Order of the Dannebrog for his professional accomplishments.

Before coming to Oxford, Flyvbjerg held professorships at Aalborg University, Denmark and Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. He received his PhD from Aarhus University, Denmark, and holds two higher doctorates from Aalborg University in engineering (Dr. Techn.) and science (Dr. Scient.), respectively.

Bent Flyvbjerg is a Professorial Fellow of St Anne's College, Oxford.

Research interests

Major programme management and planning.
Major programme finance and risk.
Regulation of major programmes.
Philosophy of social science.
Case study research.

Books

Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram, eds., Real Social
Science: Applied Phronesis. 2012, Cambridge University Press. For reviews, click here.

Hugo Priemus, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Bert van Wee, eds., Decision-Making On Mega-Projects: Cost–benefit Analysis, Planning, and Innovation. 2008, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. 2003, Cambridge University Press.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Making Social Science Matter: Why Social Inquiry Fails and How It Can Succeed Again. 2001, Cambridge University Press.

Bent Flyvbjerg, Rationality and Power: Democracy in Practice. 1998, The University of Chicago Press.

Journal articles

"Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View," May 2013, International Journal of Project Management, vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 760-774.

"Different Cost Performance: Different Determinants? The Case of Cost Overruns in Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects." July 2012, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J. E. Molin, and Bert van Wee, Transport Policy, vol. 22, pp. 88-95.

"Characteristics of Cost Overruns for Dutch Transport Infrastructure Projects and the Importance of the Decision to Build and Project Phases." July 2012, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J. E. Molin, and Bert van Wee, Transport Policy, vol. 22, pp. 49-56.

"Why Mass Media Matter to Planning Research: The Case of Megaprojects." June 2012, Journal of Planning Education and Research, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 169-181.

"Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think." September 2011, co-author: Alexander Budzier, Harvard Business Review, pp. 601-603; selected by HBR as leading article for the "Ideas Watch" section, featuring the hottest new ideas in business and management.

"Transferable Knowledge: An Interview with Bent Flyvbjerg," 2011, interview by Inge Mette Kirkeby, Architectural Research Quarterly, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 9-14.

"Lock-in and Its Influence on the Project Performance of Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Investigating the Way in Which Lock-In Can Emerge and Affect Cost Overruns." 2010, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bert van Wee, and Eric J. E. Molin, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 37, pp. 792-807.

"Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: Improving Institutions and Decision Making." 2010, co-author Bert van Wee, Editorial, European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 1-4.

"Cost Overruns in Large-scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness." March 2010, co-authors: Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J.E. Molin, and Bert van Wee, European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 5-18.

"Survival of the Unfittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built—And What We Can Do about It." 2009, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 344–367.

"Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster." Winter 2009, co-authors: Massimo Garbuio and Dan Lovallo, California Management Review, vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 170-193.

"Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures." July 2008, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 34, 2007, pp. 578-597. This article was awarded the Association of European Schools of Planning (AESOP) Prize for Best Published Paper.

"Comparison of Capital Costs per Route-Kilometre in Urban Rail." March 2008, co-authors: Nils Bruzelius and Bert van Wee, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 17-30.

"Planning and Design of Large Infrastructure Projects." 2007, guest editorial, co-author: Hugo Priemus, Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, vol. 34, pp. 576-577.

"Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure." February 2007, Transportation Planning and Technology, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 9-30.

"From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right." August 2006, Project Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 5-15.

"Five Misunderstandings About Case-Study Research." April 2006, Qualitative Inquiry, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 219-245. Listed by Sage as "most read" and "most cited" article on the journal's homepage (as of 2012).

"Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling." July 2005, Transportation Research A, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 522-530.

"Design by Deception: The Politics of Megaproject Approval." Spring/summer 2005, Harvard Design Magazine, no. 22, pp. 50-59.

"How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation." Spring 2005, principal author: Bent Flyvbjerg; co-authors: Mette Skamris Holm and Søren L. Buhl, Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 131-146.

"Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?” 1998, The British Journal of Sociology, vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 210-233.

Book chapters

"Five Misunderstandings about Case Study Research, Corrected." 2013, in Maggi Savin-Baden and Claire Howell Major, eds., Qualitative Research: The Essential Guide to Theory and Practice, pp. 165-166, London and New York: Routledge.

"Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Says about IT Project Risk in the Public Sector." 2012, co-author: Alexander Budzier, in Commonwealth Secretariat, ed., Commonwealth Governance Handbook: Democracy, Development, and Public Administration, pp. 145-147, Cambridge: Nexus.

‪"Habermas and Foucault: Thinkers for Civil Society?” 2012, in Stewart R. Clegg and Mark Haugaard, eds., Power, vol. 1: Power and Politics, pp. 117-140, London: Sage.

"Why Mass Media Matter and How to Work with Them: Phronesis and Megaprojects." 2012, in Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman, and Sanford Schram eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, pp. 95-121, Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. For reviews of the book click here.

"Introduction: New Directions in Social Science." 2012, co-authors: Todd Landman and Sanford Schram, in Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford Schram, eds., Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, pp. 1-14, Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. For reviews of the book click here.

"Important Next Steps in Phronetic Social Science." 2012, co-authors: Todd Landman,and Sanford Schram, in Bent Flyvbjerg, Todd Landman and Sanford Schram, eds, Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis, pp. 285-297, Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. For reviews of the book click here.

"Delusion, Deception and Corruption in Major Infrastructure Projects: Causes, Consequences, Cures." 2011, co-author Eamonn Molloy, in Susan Rose-Ackerman and Tina Soreide, eds., International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption, pp. 81-107, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.

"Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, and Curses." 2011, in Thomas L. Harper, Michael Hibbard, Heloisa Costa, Anthony Gar-On Yeh, eds., Dialogues in Urban Regional Planning, vol 4, pp. 223-248, New York: Routledge.

"Making Social Science Matter." 2011, in Georgios Papanagnou, eds., Social Science and Policy Challenges: Democracy, Values and Capacities, pp. 25-56, Paris: UNESCO Publishing.

"Case Study." 2011, in Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln, eds., The Sage Handbook of Qualitative Research, 4th Edition, pp. 301-316, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

"Over Budget, Over Time, Over and Over Again: Managing Major Projects." 2011, in Peter W. G. Morris, Jeffrey K. Pinto, and Jonas Söderlund, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Project Management., pp. 321-344, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

"Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development." 2009, in Terry Williams, Knut Samset and Kjell Sunnevag, eds., Making Essential Choices with Scant Information: Front-end Decision Making in Major Projects, pp. 147-168, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

"Phronetic Organizational Research." 2008, in Richard Thorpe and Robin Holt, eds., The Sage Dictionary of Qualitative Management Research, pp. 153-155, Los Angeles: Sage Publications.

"Making Sociology Matter: Phronetic Sociology as Public Sociology." 2008, in Michael Hviid Jacobsen, ed., Public Sociology, pp. 77-117, Aalborg University Press.

"Introduction: Scope of the Book." 2008, co-authors Hugo Priemus and Bert van Wee, in Hugo Priemus, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Bert van Wee, eds., Decision-Making On Mega-Projects: Cost-benefit Analysis, Planning, and Innovation, pp. 1-20, Cheltenham, UK and Northamton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.

"Public Planning of Mega-projects: Overestimation of Demand and Underestimation of Costs." 2008, in Hugo Priemus, Bent Flyvbjerg, and Bert van Wee, eds., Decision-Making On Mega-Projects: Cost-benefit Analysis, Planning, and Innovation, pp. 120-144, Cheltenham, UK and Northamton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar.

"How Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Early Project Development Undermine Implementation." 2007, in Kjell J. Sunnevåg, ed., Beslutninger på svakt informasjonsgrunnlag: Tilnærminger og utfordringer i projekters tidlige fase (Decisions based on weak information: Approaches and challenges in the early phase of projects), pp. 41-55, Trondheim, Norway: Concept Program, The Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

"Eliminating Bias in Early Project Development through Reference Class Forecasting and Good Governance." 2007, in Kjell J. Sunnevåg, ed., Beslutninger på svakt informasjonsgrunnlag: Tilnærminger og utfordringer i projekters tidlige fase (Decisions based on weak information: Approaches and challenges in the early phase of projects), pp. 90-110, Trondheim, Norway: Concept Program, The Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

"Megaprojects and Risk." 2007, in William L. Richter and Frances Burke, eds., Combating Corruption, Encouraging Ethics: A Practical Guide to Management Ethics, second edition pp. 52-58, principal author: Bent Flyvbjerg; co-authors: Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Published in cooperation with The American Society for Public Administration. Lanham, MA and Plymouth, UK: Rowman and Littlefield.

"Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research." 2007, in Clive Seale, Giampietro Gobo, Jaber F. Gubrium, and David Silverman, eds., Qualitative Research Practice: Concise Paperback Edition, pp. 390-404, London and Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

"A Perestroikan Straw Man Answers Back: David Laitin and Phronetic Political Science." 2006, in Sanford F. Schram and Brian Caterino, eds., Making Political Science Matter: Debating Knowledge, Research, and Method, pp. 56-85, New York and London: New York University Press.

"Making Organization Research Matter: Power, Values, and Phronesis." July 2006, in Stewart R. Clegg, Cynthia Hardy, Thomas B. Lawrence, and Walter R. Nord, eds., The Sage Handbook of Organization Studies, second edition, pp. 370-387, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Working papers

"Olympic Proportions: Cost and Cost Overrun at the Olympics 1960-2012." June 2012, co-author: Allison Stewart, working paper, 23 pp, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

"Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent." August 2011, co-author: Alex Budzier, 33 pp., Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

"Truth and Lies About Megaprojects." September 2007, Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, 27 pp., Delft University of Technology.

"Megaproject Policy and Planning: Problems, Causes, Cures." 2007, summary of dissertation for higher doctorate in science (Dr. Scient.), 62 pp., Aalborg: Uni.print, Aalborg University.

"Policy and Planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures." 2005, Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 3781, 32 pp., World Bank, Washington, DC.

"The High Price of Rebuilding Iraq." April 2003, Unpublished Op-Ed, Saïd Business School, Oxford University.

Publications in other languages

Bent Flyvbjerg, Sta mogu drustvene nauke: Razlozi neuspeha i strategija za buducnost. 2012. Translation of Making Social Science Matter; translated from Serbian by Milos Vukcevic. Beograd: Glasnik.